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NL Holdem Applying Pot Odds To Tournament Play

I will make the assumption here that you all know how to calculate pot odds. If you are playing in a ring game then aside from advertising plays that is just about all you need to know when considering calling a bet that risks all your chips IF you know what the other player has got. This is of course assuming that you have plenty of money that you DIDN'T take with you to the table. If it is your last 10$ then you have to consider the opportunity cost of risking your money on that hand.

Anyway Standard pot odds in an all in situation are:

Formula 1: simple pot odds Call if FV(chips if fold)1

You will see other ways of this being presented but they all amount to the same thing.

In tournament play the situation is different if you are in a freezeout situation. If you bust out you cannot rebuy or redeposit - you are OUT!

Two factors affect the standard calculation of pot odds. Firstly the opportunity cost of risking being busted out. If you are in a 5$ MTT early on and are offered a 50/50 early on with a small amount extra in the pot you have to realize that 10 hands later you may well get the opportunity of a double up on a 70/30 - MUCH more lucrative.

Secondly say 3000 chips rather than 1500 is not generally worth twice as much as 1500 if you had to put a real money value on your chip stack.

At its simplest you will have tournament pot odds to call a bet putting you all in if you take Formula 1 but replace the Call value with the $$ value of chip stack if call and replace Fold value with the $$ value of your chip stack if you fold.

Formula 2: Real $$ tournament pot odds Call is $FV (money value of chip stack if fold) "the golden number” (1.1) for a call to be correct.

You will often be in situations where you have something like AKos and after a small raise in early position someone reraises you all in. Using the criteria I have set the answer will often be NO! OK think how likely is it that they have AQ, KQ, Ajs etc(i.e. you are a good favorite) - if we assume that this is a fairly high buyin tha

t we are talking about against solid players it will not be that likely. This must also be countered by the chance that they have AA, KK (you are a dog) etc.

Lets just say you knew they held 66 - without there being much added in the pot you should fold this re-raise if calling would put you all in. You would need CV/FV to be greater than 1.1 (everything else being equal) to justify calling. The more likely holdings such as AQ etc are likely the more you can call but against fairly strong opponents with a reasonable stake in the game you will frequently find folding AK and AQ to a huge raise to be the correct course of play. Many will erroneously only do so if they believe their opponent has KK or AA (how many times have we seen QQ v AK showdowns though) but really EVEN if there is a few chips in the pot folding AK to any PP will generally be the correct course of play.

Finally you will note that this all applies whether you are chasing something where you are 90% favorite or where you are 10% favorite- however one of the key wooly factors that I have perhaps underestimated is what opportunities will you be throwing away if you call and lose. Getting better than 50% odds isn't that hard in medium level buy ins once the blinds start to get high similarly if YOU are the one going all in there is also the chance that your opponent will fold. The converse of course is if you are in a situation where the blinds are really high and the other players are strong loose aggressive players. If you are waiting for CV/FV>1 you might have a long wait on your hands. The "opportunity costs” of calling is clearly important in assessing these wooly factors.

It will become apparent as you try to assess the $CV's and $FV's that they are far easier to assess for small tourneys (1 table, 2 table etc) than for big tourneys. This is something that does get easier with experience however. I would be interested to here feedback on this and also if anyone has a more scientific way of calculating these so called "wooly factors”. Playing poker is obviously not all about doing mathematical calculations but anything that helps improve the decision making of players is worth considering.

REMINDER Whilst $CVv$FV will ALWAYS be correct to use almost everything else here only applies to calls that will knock you out if you lose (or cripple your stack so that it amounts to the same thing). Whilst you will generally still require CV/F




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